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Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Barak "Mr Insurance" Obama

Did anyone else catch the amazingly stupid "analysis" of the ideas behind insurance that our president holds? They are contained here:

When I was young, just got out of college, I had to buy auto insurance. I had a beat-up old car. And I won’t name the name of the insurance company, but there was a company — let’s call it Acme Insurance in Illinois. And I was paying my premiums every month. After about six months I got rear-ended and I called up Acme and said, I’d like to see if I can get my car repaired, and they laughed at me over the phone because really this was set up not to actually provide insurance; what it was set up was to meet the legal requirements. But it really wasn’t serious insurance.

Now, it’s one thing if you’ve got an old beat-up car that you can’t get fixed. It’s another thing if your kid is sick, or you’ve got breast cancer.


Is it possible that Barack Obama, future editor of the Harvard Law Review and President of the United States, found simple insurance decisions utterly mystifying and had no idea what he had actually purchased? You don't understand that comprehensive and collision are NOT normally purchased on an old beater of a car? And we are supposed to just "trust you" that you understand the complexities of health care coverage?

As someone who has owned an insurance brokerage, I am used to the idea of patiently explaining to ignoramuses that just because you "paid your premiums" this does not mean you have coverage for every conceivable thing that might happen to your vehicle. There are some things which are specifically excluded or included, as there are in any contract.

It is jaw droppingly stupid that this man, who clearly has no idea of the terms, limitations, exclusions and definitions of covered claims is telling us that *HE* is the one who will fix the health care insurance industry, and that his solutions are the ones we should look to.

It is astounding to me that a man who has never even HELD A JOB, much less run a company, thinks he understands one sixth of the nation's economy better than anyone else.

Unemployment numbers are going to be BAD!!

How do I know? Because of this: UPDATE 1-Winter storms to distort US jobless figures-Summers

When the numbers aren't even out yet and Larry Summers is already trying to spin them, you KNOW they are bad.

Monday, March 01, 2010

THIS IS BIG!!! Our bond auctions are falling apart

There are times in life when one witnesses something so outside the scope of normal experience, that at first you don’t see it.

Captain Cook’s diaries tell us that upon first seeing his ships offshore in Australia, the aborigines expressed “neither surprise nor concern.” Cook notes that it was not until he and his men approached the shore in smaller, more familiar vessels that the villagers reacted, arming themselves as “the sight of men in small boats was comprehensible to them: it meant invasion.”

Well, I had a similar experience during yesterday’s bond auction..... Below is the entire article. This is incredibly big news.

Something Very Strange Is Happening With Treasuries -- Seeking Alpha

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Hunter S Thompson

In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile—and the rest of us are f###ed until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Hooray for TJ

"Whensoever the General Government (Washington) assumes undelegated powers, its acts are unauthoritative, void, and of no force."

We need a HUGE dose of Thomas Jefferson in our public discourse nowadays.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Twenty bombs out there ticking away.....

These are economic weapons of mass destruction. One explodes, and they are daisy chained together and all will go off. The resulting explosion will make the Great Depression look like child's play. Rather, think "21st Century Dark Ages."

Our financial, economic, and political system is headed (I believe irrevocably, but there may be time to change....) for a firestorm that will make our heads turn around. "Retirement" will be replaced by "survival" as the goal of the vast majority.

I stole this list from Paul Farrell, economics commentator for Marketwatch.com and ex-banker with Morgan Stanley (where he worked for 30 years). He was also president of Financial News Network, so he knows a little about what he is talking about. You can find these items catalogued here.

The thing Farrell does not mention compounds the problem logarithmically. Never before in human history have so many people been concentrated in CITIES. The horrific thing about that is that cities produce nothing in terms of basic survival needs. They are huge sucking leeches of resources, whether it be water, energy, clothing, articles of daily living and of course, FOOD.
My father used to tell me stories of growing up as a child in the Great Depression. They talked about being poor (his father died when he was 6 months old). They lived on a small rural plot of land you could not realistically call a "farm," , but they had food. It may have been mostly cornbread and beans, but they ate, because they produced it themselves. Never before in human history have so many people been vulnerable to a catastrophic collapse of the "grid." We have whole populations who are simply helpless if the infrastructure crumbles.

Read on for the list of possible "triggers" for a cultural/economic/financial maelstrom, and you might understand why I have been stockpiling gold, guns, ammo, articles for daily living, and now, food.

Maybe I am nuts. Farrell doesn't think so.

1. Federal Budget Deficit Bomb. The Bush/Cheney wars pushed America deep into a debt hole. Federal debt limit was just raised almost 100% with Obama's 2010 budget, to $14.3 trillion vs. $7.8 trillion in 2005. The Congressional Budget Office predicts future deficits around 4% through 2020. Get it? America's debt at 84% of GDP will soon pass that toxic 90% trigger point.

2. U.S. Foreign Trade Bomb. Monthly deficits actually dropped from $50 billion per month to roughly $35 billion. But the total continues climbing as $400 billion is added each year. Foreigners now own $2.5 trillion of America, with China holding over $1.3 trillion in Treasury debt.

3. Weakening U.S. Dollar as Foreign Reserve Currency Bomb. Fear China and other currencies will replace dollar as main foreign reserves. The dollar's fallen: The main index measuring dollar strength has gone from 120 at the Clinton-to-Bush handoff to below 80 today.

4. Cheap Money Bomb: Credit Ratings Down, Rates Up. Economists at S&P, Fitch and Moody's were totally co-conspirators of Fat Cat Bankers, misleading investors before meltdown: Soon, debt up, ratings down, interest rates soar.

5. Global Real Estate Bomb. Dubai Tower, new "world's tallest building" is empty. BusinessWeek warns that China's housing collapse could be worse than America's. Plus the U.S. commercial real estate bubble is now $1.7 trillion, a "ticking time bomb" bloating 25% of bank balance sheets.

6. Peak Oil and the Population Bomb. China and India each need 500 new cities. The United Nations estimates world population exploding 50% from 6 billion to 9 billion by 2050: Three billion more humans demanding more automobiles, exhausting more resources to feed their version of the gas-guzzling "America Dream."

7. Social Security Bomb. We have no choice; eventually we must either cut benefits or raise taxes. Politicians hate both, so they'll do nothing. Delays worsen solutions. Without action, by 2035 Social Security and Medicare benefits will eat up the entire federal budget other than defense.

8. Medicare: A Nuclear Bomb. Going broke faster than Social Security. Prescription drug benefit added an unfunded $8.1 trillion. In 5 years estimates rose from about $35 trillion to over $60 trillion now.

9. Health-care Insurance Bomb. Burden increasingly shifted to employees. Costs rising faster than inflation. Recent Obamacare plan would have cost $90 billion annually, paid to Big Pharma and insurers.

10. State and Local Government Budget Bombs. Deficits of $110 billion in 2010, $178 billion in 2011on top of more that $450 billion in underfunded state and municipal employee pension funds.

11. Underfunded Corporate Pensions Bomb. From $60 billion surplus in 2007 to $409 billion deficit in 2009. And a whopping 92% of the pension plans of companies are now underfunded. Defaults are guaranteed by taxpayers.

12. Consumer Debt Bomb. Americans are still living beyond their means. Even with a downturn, consumer debt rose from about $2.3 to $2.5 trillion. Fat Cat Bankers love it -- yes love making matters worse by gouging cardholders and mortgagees, blocking help in foreclosures and bankruptcies.

13. Personal Savings Bomb. Before the 2008 meltdown savings rate dropped from about 10% in the early 1980s to below zero. Now it's increasing, slowing retail recovery. Today, government's the big "unsaver."

14. War and Military Defense Deficits. Costs of Iraq and Afghanistan wars -- $200+ billion annually, $3 trillion minimum, with massive long-term costs for veteran medical care, equipment renewal, recruitment.

15. Homeland Insecurity Bomb. Security at airports, seaports, borders, vulnerable chemical plants all increase budgets.

16. Fed/Treasury Bailout Bombs. Tax credits, loans, cash and purchase of toxic assets from Wall Street banks estimated at $23.7 trillion as new debt was shifted from too-big-to-fail Fat-Cat banks to taxpayers.

17. Insatiable Washington Lobbyists Bombs. Paulson, Goldman, Geithner, Morgan and Wall Street banks, through their lobbyists and former employees working inside now have absolute power over government spending. Democracy and voters are now irrelevant in America's new corporate-socialism.

18. Shadow Banking: The Derivatives Bomb. Wall Street wants no regulation of this $670 trillion, high-risk, out-of-control casino that's highly leveraged versus the $50 trillion total GDP of all nations. We forget that derivatives almost destroyed global economies in 2008-09, finally will by 2012.

19. Dysfunctional Two-Party Political Bomb. Polarized partisanship increasing: Every day both parties show zero interest in cooperating for the public good. Instead they fight viciously, resisting everything and anything proposed by opponents. Only goal: Score political points, make the other side look bad.

20. The Coming Populous Rebellion Bombs. Nobody trusts anyone in authority. For good reason. So immediate gratification, short-term betting and a lack of long-term perspective wins for individual investors, consumers and taxpayers as well as Washington, Wall Street and Corporate America CEOs. Today: "Doing what's right for the common good and country" is just empty political rhetoric.

"Environmentalism" at its core

"Environmental extremism is a breathless handmaiden for collectivism. It pours a layer of smooth, creamy science over a relentless hunger for power. Since the boogeymen of the Green movement threaten the very Earth itself with imminent destruction, the environmentalist feels morally justified in suspending democracy and seizing the liberty of others. Of course we can’t put these matters to a vote! The dimwitted hicks in flyover country can’t understand advanced biochemistry or climate science. They might vote the wrong way, and we can’t risk the consequences! The menace can only be battled by a mighty central State. Talk of representation, property rights, and even free speech is madness when such a threat towers above the fragile ecosphere, wheezing pollutants and coughing out a stream of dead birds and drowned polar bears"

BINGO!!! from http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/02/16/the-green-death/

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Origin of the "birthers".....

One of the really crazy, bizarre and weird truths about today's political climate is how everything is jumbled up. One of the craziest elements of this mess is the fact that the "birther" group, which claims Obama was born in Kenya, and therefore not eligible to be president, actually was born in the DEMOCRATIC party.

The original "birthers" were not Tea Party Palinists, but a bunch of Hilary Clinton supporters, furious at what they saw as a power play among the party elites to deny her the nomination. They called themselves "PUMA"s (Party Unity, My Ass), and published reams and reams on the birth info on Obama, long before the election. Their leader legal investigations was Phil Berg, a lifetime Democratic activist and a 911 truther.

In the run-up to the election, my wife discovered a few of these sites. We were goggle eyed and astounded at how many of these women wound up being supporters of Sarah Palin. (Estrogen trumps all, for many of them).

Anyway, the next time someone mentions how wack and weird the birthers are, you might mention that that charge actually originated with the original "O" haters, Democratic Party activists.

Life is grand, just because it is so weird.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

An encouraging note from NC 4th congressional district!

BJ Lawson has decided to run again for Congress!!! BJ is the ultimate "anti" candidate. He ran against David Price in 2008, and polled 37% in an Obama Tsunami. This is better than any candidate has done since the district was re-drawn to ensure Price's re-election by the state political hacks. I was introduced to BJ when I was following Ron Paul's presidential run. He has been called the "hybrid candidate" because he attracted so many traditional Democrat voters, due to his strong stance on issues of personal liberty.

His website on issues is still not up, but here are a few of his positions:

Audit the Federal Reserve -- does it make sense to have the monetary policy of the USA determined by a private group of non-accountable international bankers?

A non interventionist foreign policy -- there are ways of resisting Islamofascism and making us safe OTHER than bleeding us dry with wars, invoking hostility and/or resentment from other countries, and stationing our armed forces in over 150 countries around the world

Restore power to the states and the people by forcing Congress to SPECIFICALLY STATE the constitutional justification for each piece of legislation (see Bill of Rights, amendments 9 and 10)

Roll back the unconstitutional power grab of the Federal government in areas of firearms, drug laws, reproductive/abortion issues, eminent domain, education and scores of other areas which do not belong to DC, under our Constitution, including of course, NCAA football championship playoffs (no, I am not kidding!)

Energy Independence -- is it wise to be enslaved to oil producing countries who openly wish us harm? We have a plethora of energy sources available, including nuclear.

A sound currency -- the dollar has lost 96% of its value over the last 90 or so years, and is due to nosedive due to the reckless and profligate spending of the current and previous administration. Part of that soundness would be the authorization of competing currencies with the fiat money issued by the federal reserve, a practice that has a rich history in our country, and one which would enhance federal honesty in minting.

Reversal of the "patriot act" and other federal intrusions into the rights and privacy of American citizens, along with restoration of habeas corpus, and a reversal of the horrible "right" of the State Department to declare even American citizens to be "enenmy combatants" and kill them, without a trial or official investigation

End the creation of "zombie" corporations by excessive cash dumping into bankrupt companies. Dr. Lawson believes that companies with viable assets who no longer are fiscally able to stand should be allowed to liquidate those assets to healthy companies more able to utilize them (we used to call this practice "bankruptcy")

Stop the insane, wildass spending by the Federal Government at all levels, and demand a return to a constitutionally authorized budget, rather than one simply authorized by Congressional appropriation wherever they feel moved to fund something.

You can follow his progress here http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/blog

"Things are a little bit worse than had been expected,"

"Things are a little bit worse than had been expected," says Stephen Goss, chief actuary for the Social Security Administration. "Clearly, we're going to be negative for a year or two."

Ahem.



Social Security took in only $3 billion more in taxes last year than it paid out in benefits — a $60 billion decline from 2008, according to federal data. The slide in revenue occurred sooner than Social Security actuaries had expected, for three reasons:

• Payroll tax revenue that was growing at a 4.5% average annual clip along with wages flattened out in 2009 because of rising unemployment and pay raises that largely disappeared.

• The number of retired workers who began taking benefits increased by 20%; those taking disability jumped by 10%.

• Monthly benefits were raised 5.8% because of a spike in energy prices the year before.

Social Security was saved from bankruptcy in 1983 by a bipartisan deal that increased payroll taxes, taxed some benefits and gradually raised the retirement age to 67. That was supposed to keep the system solvent at least until 2058, but the projection has slipped to 2037.

The impact of the recession shows that "for all these projections, unexpected things happen," says Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.. "Money has to be found to repay those trust funds."

President George W. Bush proposed voluntary private retirement accounts in 2005, but the effort stalled in Congress. President Obama has proposed giving Social Security and other thorny fiscal issues to a bipartisan commission.



http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-02-07-social-security-red-retirements_N.htm

Monday, February 08, 2010

Just to go on record....

I am long SRS (a pro-shares ultra short fund). It is the only equity I own. Bought it at 7.96. I will sell half of it at 15. I would not be surprised at all to see it retrace to 100.

Just sayin.

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Social Security is officially broke.....

and our government leaders are lying sacks of .......

"...... even as the bank bailout is winding down, another huge bailout is starting, this time for the Social Security system.

A report from the Congressional Budget Office shows that for the first time in 25 years, Social Security is taking in less in taxes than it is spending on benefits.

Instead of helping to finance the rest of the government, as it has done for decades, our nation's biggest social program needs help from the Treasury to keep benefit checks from bouncing -- in other words, a taxpayer bailout.

No one has officially announced that Social Security will be cash-negative this year. But you can figure it out for yourself, as I did, by comparing two numbers in the recent federal budget update that the nonpartisan CBO issued last week.

The first number is $120 billion, the interest that Social Security will earn on its trust fund in fiscal 2010 (see page 74 of the CBO report). The second is $92 billion, the overall Social Security surplus for fiscal 2010 (see page 116).

This means that without the interest income, Social Security will be $28 billion in the hole this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30."

from cnn money

The Country’s In The Best Of Hands

The good news is that, when it comes to reshaping the U.S. mortgage market [any market for that matter — ed.], the Obama administration’s top guns are bringing to bear all of the brisk, rough-’n’-ready entrepreneurial know-how they picked up in their previous careers as university professors, nonprofit activists, and holders of political sinecures.-- From Transterrestrial Musings

or, as one wag put it, they are like the social workers assigned to child welfare who are simply brimming with knowledge about the subject....., not because they have children themselves or have much personal experience in the matter, but because they read lots of books about it in college.

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

HOW ENCOURAGING!! The IRS is buying shotguns

here is the link. Just makes me want to wave an American flag or something.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

"Greedy" Libertarians

Also invariably critics on the left accuse libertarians of being "selfish" and "greedy" and being for rich people and against ordinary people. This charge is so far off the mark and beside the point it is almost impossible to respond to. It’s like accusing a computer of being short. It has nothing to do with what a computer is. But we get stuck in those kinds of arguments. For me, the best or at least most effective argument for libertarianism is that it is the one approach to governance that has the greatest hope of producing a humane society. The problem is to find a way to explain to people why that is so. "Progressives" like to consider themselves humane and singular in their concern for their fellow man. I don’t doubt the good intentions of those who consider themselves progressive (although, given the history of mankind you would have be somewhat dim to believe collectivism of any sort can lead to anything except misery and misery primarily for the most vulnerable and unconnected), but they seem not to be able to see the implications and unintended consequences of their philosophy. -- Doug Carkuff

Sunday, January 03, 2010

Neither Left Nor Right by Doug Carkuff

I am regularly accused by the red meat conservatives of being "liberal" because I am 1) not in favor of any of the wars we have going on 2) NOT a believer that "we suck less" is a successful campaign strategy re: the domestic economy 3) adamantly opposed to the erosion of civil liberties that go on under Republican administrations and 4) while in sympathy with almost all of the religious right's social goals, I am implacably opposed to using federal power to achieve them.

On the other hand, my leftist friends, if they bother to read this, are giggling at the thought of ANYONE considering me a "liberal" because I despise so much the federal intrusion into any area of freedom.

Therefore, when I ran across this:
Neither Left Nor Right by Doug Carkuff I thought "maybe you will at least begin to understand....."

Then again, maybe not.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Dispelling Myths about Concealed Carry of Firearms

1. We don't carry firearms so we can ignore other basics of personal safety. Every permit holder that I know realizes that almost all dangerous situations can be avoided by vigilance, alertness, and by simply making wise choices about where one goes and what one does. We don't walk down dark alleys. We lock our cars. We don't get intoxicated in public or hang around people who do. We park our cars in well-lit spots and don't hang out in bad parts of town where we have no business. A gun is our last resort, not our first.

2. We don't think we are cops, spies, or superheroes. We aren't hoping that somebody tries to rob the convenience store while we are there so we shoot a criminal. We don't take it upon ourselves to get involved in situations that are better handled by a 911 call or by simply standing by and being a good witness. We don’t believe our guns give us any authority over our fellow citizens. We also aren’t here to be your unpaid volunteer bodyguard. We’ll be glad to tell you where we were trained and point you to some good gun shops if you feel you want to take on this of responsibility for your personal safety. Except for extraordinary circumstances your business is your business, don’t expect us to help you out of situations you could have avoided.

3. We are less likely, not more likely, to become involved in fights or “rage” incidents than the general public. We recognize, better than many unarmed citizens, that we are responsible for our actions. We take that responsibility of carrying a firearm very seriously. We know that loss of temper, getting into fights, or angrily confronting someone after a traffic incident could easily escalate into a dangerous situation. We are more likely to go out of our way to avoid these situations. We don’t pull our guns to settle arguments or to threaten people into doing what we want.

4. We are responsible gun owners. We secure our firearms so that children and other unauthorized people cannot access them. Most of us have invested in safes, cases, and lock boxes as well as other security measures to keep our firearms secure. Many of us belong to various organizations that promote firearm safety and ownership.

5. Guns are not unsafe or unpredictable. Modern firearms are well made precision instruments. Pieces do not simply break off causing them to fire. A hot day will not set them off. Most modern firearms will not discharge even if dropped. There is no reason to be afraid of a gun simply lying on a table or in a holster. It is not going to jump out of my pocket, waistband or holster and discharge on its own.

6. We do not believe in the concept of “accidental discharges.” There are no accidental discharges only negligent discharges or intentional discharges. We take responsibility for our actions and have learned how to safely handle firearms. Any case you have heard about a gun “going off” was the result of negligence on somebody’s part. Our recognition of our responsibility and familiarity with firearms makes us among the safest firearms owners in America.

7. Permit holders do their best to keep our concealed weapons exactly that: concealed. I carry most of the time, and I do NOT want to flip out soccer moms or squeamish citizens. However there are times when an observant fellow citizen may spot our firearm or the print of it under our clothes. We are very cognizant that concerns about terrorism and crime are in the forefront of the minds of most citizens. We also realize our society does much to condition our citizens to have irrational fears about firearms. we would encourage citizens who do happen to spot someone carrying a firearm to use good judgment and clear thinking if they feel the need to take action. Please recognize that it is very uncommon for a criminal to use a holster. However if you feel the need to report having spotted a firearm we would ask that you please be specific and detailed in your call to the police or in your report to a store manager or a private security. Please don’t generalize or sensationalize what you observed. Comments like “there’s a guy running around the store with a gun” or even simply “I saw a man with a gun in the store” could possibly cause a misunderstanding as to the true nature of the incident.

8. The fact that criminals know that some of the population may be armed at any given time helps to deter violence against all citizens. Permit holders don’t believe that every person should necessarily by armed. We recognize that some people may not be temperamentally suited to carry a firearm or simply may wish not to for personal reasons. We do encourage you to respect our right to arm ourselves. Even if you choose not to carry a firearm yourself please oppose measures to limit the ability of law-abiding citizens to be armed. As mentioned before: criminal do not observe “gun free zones” and the world will NOT be a safer place because you feel better about it. Help by not supporting laws that require citizens to be unarmed victims.

9. The fact that we carry a firearm into any given place does not mean that we believe that place to be inherently unsafe. If we believe a place to be unsafe, most of us would avoid that place altogether if possible. We recognize that trouble could occur at any place at any time. Criminals don’t observe “no guns allowed” signs. If trouble does come, we don’t want the only armed persons to be the perpetrators; therefore, we don’t usually make a determination about whether or not to carry at any given time based on “how safe” we think a location is.

10. Concealed weapons permit holders are an asset to the public in times of trouble.The fact that most permit holders have the good judgment to stay out of situations better handled by a 911 call or by simply being a careful and vigilant witness does not mean we would fail to act in situations where the use of deadly force is appropriate to save lives. Review of high profile public shooting incidents shows that when killers are confronted by armed resistance they tend to either break off the attack and flee, or choose to end their own life. Lives are saved when resistance engages a violent criminal. Lives are lost when the criminal can do as he pleases.

Hayek on the modern state.....

Wars expand the power of the modern state because the national planning to fight the war continues even during times of peace. This perennial government planning then expands the social-welfare state over time, with harmful results. Most importantly, economic activity is impeded by the growing state as people and resources become less productive. In other words, because the government does not create consumable goods and services, it is an economic burden to the productive sector of the economy.

Then as the government grows, interest groups become increasingly numerous and powerful, leading to political corruption. More wars or even foreign policy tensions and economic crises can propel demagogues and dictatorial leaders to expand further state powers, to the detriment of each and every one of us

Sound familiar?

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Do you actually KNOW anything about the bible... besides your opinion of it?

It has been said that one of the unique characteristics of Americans is that our devotion for the Bible is matched only by our ignorance of it. I would argue that there is NO OTHER BOOK like it, and that we would all be better off with a knowledge of it. I have used for years a daily reading pattern put together by a dead Scot named Bobby MCheyne.
Here is a link to it.

If you have never systematically read through that book, I can only say this. You are ignorant. Sorry, no other way to put it. Any person claiming to be quasi-literate should read it through AT LEAST once even if when you get through, you put it aside, reject the premises, and deny what it claims (it claims to be absolute truth communicated by the Creator and detailing the master plan of the Universe).

I myself have found myself alternately offended, inspired, enraged, motivated, shamed, encouraged, discouraged, puzzled, joyful, humiliated, fearful, loved, staggered at my smallness, and a subject to a whole range of emotions as I read it. It deals with profundities that will sink the deepest intellect and presents them in language a child can grasp. I opened it for the first time as a hostile but curious kid at age 17, hating the fundamentalist culture that banged on it, but enchanted by it when I actually read it (I found out the fundies were mostly WRONG about what it taught, btw). I have since read it through hundreds of times and it is a new and relevant today as the first time I opened it.

Maybe this year would be a good time to know what it says, rather than just what other people say about it?