August 2011 Business Outlook Survey - Indicators Suggest Activity Is Near Steady - Philadelphia Fed

This report by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can only be classified in the "oh sh*t!" category. Despite the bureaucratese in the title, the report is as bleak as one can imagine.

I have never seen such a nightmarish outlook.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009 . The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, paralleled the decline in the general activity index, falling 27 points. The current shipments index fell 18 points and recorded its first negative reading since September of last year. Suggesting weakening activity, indexes for inventories, unfilled orders, and delivery times were all in negative territory this month.

Firms’ responses suggest a deterioration in the labor market compared with July. The current employment index fell 14 points, recording its first negative reading in 12 months. About 18 percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, but 23 percent reported a decrease. The percentage of firms reporting a shorter workweek (28 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting a longer one (14 percent). The workweek index fell 9 points.

This can only be categorized as "disaster."

I hope everyone is prepared for this thing and getting more that way. We are headed for some very tough times. Think "Greece."



August 2011 Business Outlook Survey - Indicators Suggest Activity Is Near Steady - Philadelphia Fed